Drifting Continents,
Greedy Motives, Party-Animal Meteorologists, and Snowstorm Arissa: Musings on
Weather and Climate
This was a week in which several random but related events
caught my attention in the weather and climate world. The moment that inspired this blog was an interesting
question by a friend of my wife. At my UGA office, I got an email from my wife
stating that the friend wanted to know if the United States (US) is drifting
closer to Europe by 3 inches per year.
One of her kids learned this at school that day and that baffled the
friend. Whether the speed or direction of movement is accurate is not the focus of the blog. For me, this was a very
interesting and poignant realization because I suspect that a large portion of
the US public does not realize that our continents drift or that there is
something called plate tectonics that describe such drift, earthquake activity,
and mountain formation. I say this not to poke fun at anyone. It is simply factual that the average
US citizen understands science at a middle school grade level. This speaks to a
larger observation of mine in the climate discussions that I continually have
with the public and even some policymakers. There is a tendency for many to
impose their level of knowledge on a science topic and either question/refute
the facts if it doesn’t line up with their level of understanding. You would be surprised at how many
people misunderstand what “heat lightning” is; are confused when I say that a
rainstorm in the middle of summer may have started off in the cloud as snow; or
are perplexed when I tell them that ice ages will happen again due to periodic
changes in Earth’s orbit or tilt. Every globe from elementary school has lied
to you because it gives you the impression that the tilt never changes.
This “adaptive understanding of science” is rampant in
climate science, which like nuclear physics or cardiology is a complex science.
Yet, you rarely find a plumber or real estate agent debating a cardiologist or
nuclear physicist. With that introduction, let me move on to other
counter-intuitive or puzzling matters that crossed my mind this week.
Greedy Motives: I
continue to be amazed that some people still think that climate scientists talk
up climate change for grant money. This is one of the latest “zombie” theories
(i.e., theory that is not true or that has been refuted but continues to live
on) making the rounds. While it is not true, I had a guy (an accountant) at the
Atlanta Braves game throw this out to me when I made the point that there are
some industries that have a strong interest in spreading confusion about climate
change in the same manner that the tobacco industry did with studies about the
dangers of smoking. It lines up nicely with Upton Sinclair’s statement that “it
is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on
him not understanding it.” This
“zombie theory” is very counter-intuitive because it would actually seem more
likely that if scientists wanted more research funding, they would say that
things are very uncertain or unclear and that we need more study (and funding).
Additionally, those who throw out this “zombie theory” clearly demonstrate a
lack of knowledge of how grants are acquired and the peer-review process. Oh by
the way, none of my grants is for studying greenhouse gas warming processes.
Party Animal
Meteorologists: Another example of shortsightedness that I observed this
past week was a story by a local Atlanta news station. The station had a story
about a watchdog group questioning why a federal agency like NOAA would send
employees to meetings like the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual
Meeting. They characterized these meetings as “vacations” and taxpayer waste.
Amazingly wrong! While some industry meetings may skew on the side of social
functions, AMS and other scientific meetings are very rigorous “multiple
meetings/conference within one” where scientists and scholars learn about the
latest technology, research, and methods that can benefit them in their job
capacity. Because AMS has 15 separate conferences within one meeting, it is
actually a huge value for taxpayers. Additionally, these meetings have several
training short-courses that are critical for professional development. Name any
profession where continual learning and development is not valued. Further,
anyone that calls a scientific or technical conference vacation obviously has
not attended one.
Naming Snowstorms: The
other story that got my attention this week is the new Weather Channel
initiative to name snowstorms. The Weather Channel, in my view, is one of the
single most important partners and resources in our field and is a pioneer on
so many fronts. I am pleased to say that I have friends and colleagues at all
levels of the organization. However, on this particular initiative, I had some
concerns. Naming snowstorms is not new. Free University in Europe does this and
at least one major insurance company in the US has tried it as well. However,
there is no official institution (e.g. like the World Meteorological
Organization or National Hurricane Center) that does this to my knowledge. Here
are my concerns. First, the naming of snowstorms will affect the public and the
broader community. I believe that a more prudent approach would have been to
have community input from other media outlets, NOAA, and perhaps AMS/NWA. I do
not believe that this is the right opportunity to try to gain competitive market
advantage. There is too much at stake. Second, I could foresee competing
interests adopting their own naming conventions since there is no “official”
standard. This probably would serve to confuse the public. Third, I would like
to see more physical/social science research (peer reviewed) backing the
criteria for naming and how people perceive such information. For example, one
of our graduate students at University of Georgia is working with two of my
colleagues on perceptions of Georgian citizens to winter weather hazards.
Fourth, it is reasonable to ask, “what is next?” Should we also name major floods, drenches, or droughts? To
be clear, I am not opposed to change and the intentions may be good. I am mainly concerned about the
process. The Weather-Climate Enterprise of the AMS fosters public-private
partnerships and is an ideal venue for such an initiative.
In summary, these random but related thoughts on weather and
climate were on my mind. At least, my kids are thrilled by the prospect of
having more opportunities to have a storm named after them. Snowstorm Arissa huuuuum!
